In a recent Daily Maverick op-ed titled “Why new evidence demands immediate action on firearm oversight”, Gun Free South Africa (“GFSA”) argue that South Africa’s violent crime epidemic is fuelled by a “single, leaking pool of guns.” Their solution is predictable: tighter control on legal owners, fewer licences and a move towards a gun-free society.
While I am sure their concern for public safety is sincere, their premise is fundamentally flawed and can only be seen to be a manipulation of the realities South Africans face to push their agenda. By conflating the law-abiding citizen who is protecting their family in a home invasion with a criminal wielding a smuggled firearm, GFSA ignores the reality of South African crime. The “new evidence” they cite does not demand a crackdown on legal firearm owners; it demands a crackdown on state incompetence and the systemic failure of the South African Police Service (“SAPS”).
The fallacy of the “single pool”
The core of GFSA’s argument is that legal firearms are the primary source of illegal ones. They argue that by reducing the number of legal firearms, you naturally reduce the number of illegal firearms. This is a seductive but dishonest oversimplification.
While it is true that some firearms are stolen from citizens, one needs to look deeper into the “why” citizens are being targeted. Firearm thefts stem from opportunity, criminals target citizens for separate reasons and will get lucky should there be a firearm in the house to be stolen, they take advantage of vulnerable citizens in these situations knowing very well they can act with impunity because the SAPS is always last to arrive and prosecution of violent crime is slow and at times non-existent.
The above outlines the very issues with GFSA’s argument, if a firearm is getting stolen as a result of opportunity and dumb luck, then is the firearm really the issue? Absolutely not, the issue is the high levels of crime and violent crime we face in our country and the lack of efficient policing and prosecution to actually deter and lower these high levels.
The most significant “leakage” in this context has consistently come from the state itself. The most damning evidence of this isn’t found in citizens safes, but in the Prinsloo scandal, where a high-ranking police officer sold over 2 000 confiscated firearms directly to gang leaders in the Western Cape. These weapons were used to kill hundreds, including children. Late last year, the Acting Police Commissioner Firoz Cachalia indicated that between 2019/2020 until the end of 2025, a staggering total of 4 124 SAPS owned firearms were reported as lost or stolen. Another statistic GFSA conveniently failed to mention is that according to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime there is just over 3 million illicit firearms being circulated in our country, a shocking statistic that cannot be ignored within the context of their argument.
When the state cannot secure its own armouries or manage its own evidence lockers, targeting the law-abiding citizen who has jumped through every legal hoop, undergone competency training, invasive background checks and safe inspections for storage compliance, does not amount to a safety strategy; it is purely a distraction from state failure.
A perfect illustration to depict just how ridiculous and shortsighted GFSA’s argument is, would be the same as stipulating that by reducing the amount of legally purchased “privileged” vehicles and legally obtained drivers’ licences in the country, it will naturally reduce the amount of high jackings in South Africa. Essentially, every single vehicle manufacturer must shut down and may not sell a single vehicle in our country. The same could be said for televisions, jewellery and cell phones. Once again, is it the “privileged” valuables that are the problem? Absolutely not, the issue is the criminals operating freely in our country with impunity, crime and crime enforcement is the real problem. By attacking law abiding citizens and placing further restrictions on legal firearm ownership will not solve the problem, instead it will put citizens in an even worse and vulnerable position to violent crime.
Misreading the statistics
GFSA point to a rise in firearm related murders, which reached 44% of total murders in 2023/24, as proof that “more guns equal more death”. This is a classic case of confusing correlation with causation.
South Africa’s murder rate is rising because the state has lost control of the streets and their own policing structures. The proliferation of illegal firearms is driven by porous borders, organised crime syndicates and the collapse of the Central Firearms Registry (“CFR”). According to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, thousands of weapons flow into South Africa from neighbouring conflict zones and international trafficking routes. These weapons were never part of the “legal pool” GFSA wants to drain.
Furthermore, GFSA’s claim that the Firearms Control Act (“FCA”) saved 4500 lives between 2001 and 2005 is a contested statistic that ignores the broader socio-political shifts of the post-apartheid era. If the FCA were the primary driver of safety, then the current era of “stringent” oversight should have seen a decline in violence. Instead, we see the opposite. Why? Because criminals do not apply for licenses or follow the law, they act outside of the law with absolutely no consequences. This merely points towards to a systemic failure by the state to enforce the current legislation efficiently and without fear or favour.
GFSA makes reference to political killings and the role of firearms in those violent crimes, essentially arguing that a violent crime becomes more lethal when a firearm is present. GFSA fails to take the true motive and issue into account with regards to political killings, essentially one needs to look at the motive and the “why” these violent crimes are taking place. Corruption and silencing of whistleblowers are the primary drivers for political killings in our country, so is it the firearm driving these violent crimes or is it the corruption within government that is the primary driver? Focus should rather be on the eradication of corruption and adequate protection for our heroes who speak out against it, the focus should not be on legal firearm owners who have the right to protect themselves and their families. Babita Deokaran and the many others who have lost their lives by speaking out against corruption speak to this truth, after all, had there been no corrupt activity to begin with and if state properly protected them from the evils of corruption they would still be walking amongst us as heroes.
The right to self-defence in a failing state & the hypocrisy
Perhaps the most egregious part of the anti-gun lobby’s stance is the dismissal of self-defence as a “necessity”. In their world, the police are the sole providers of safety. Yet, the SAPS’s own performance metrics paint a grim picture.
In 2024 and 2025, South Africa continued to record alarmingly high rates of violent crime, hijackings, residential robberies and business robberies. In many of these cases, a licensed firearm is the only thing standing between a family and a tragedy. When the average police response time in high-crime areas can range from thirty minutes to hours, telling a citizen they have no “need” for a firearm is not just elitist; it is dangerous. To place the blame on the fact that a firearm is the most efficient mechanism to deter crime in our country is extremely shortsighted, after all, if it wasn’t an efficient mechanism then why are criminals using firearms in the first place? A firearm is exactly that, a mechanism, to focus solely on the mechanism and not the real issues behind why the mechanism is being used, is purely a manipulation to push agendas without focusing on the real issues at hand.
Another striking point to raise in this context, is how GFSA downplays defensive gun use, yet South Africa’s wealthiest neighbourhoods rely heavily on armed private security firms to keep their families safe. The same elitists who advocate disarmament for law abiding citizens live behind walls protected by licensed, armed guards. If GFSA truly believe what they are advocating, then they should be relying solely on the SAPS for their protection, not private armed security companies and security measures installed within their own homes. This hypocrisy speaks volumes.
If the state cannot fulfil its basic constitutional mandate to protect its citizens, it has no moral or legal authority to strip those citizens of the means to protect themselves. The existence of the Firearms Control Amendment Bill constitutes a direct attack against the constitutional rights of legal firearm owners, and essentially a state cannot make arbitrary decisions as to who may live safely and who may not.
The dysfunctional central firearms registry
GFSA acknowledges that the CFR is “dysfunctional”, yet their solution is to give this dysfunctional body more power and more paperwork.
The CFR has been plagued by corruption, massive backlogs and “fragmented systems” for over a decade. Law-abiding citizens often wait years for renewals, during which time they are technically in “illegal” possession of their firearms due to administration sloth. Strengthening oversight on a broken system doesn’t fix the system, it creates more opportunities for corruption.
If we want to fix firearm oversight, the focus shouldn’t be on law abiding firearm owners, but instead it should be on Digitising the CFR, moving away from a paper-based system that allows files to “disappear”. We should be auditing state armouries and implementing a biometric tracking system for every police and military firearm. We should be focusing on stricter border control, by investing in technology to stop the flow of truly illegal, unregistered weapons from outside our borders.
Disarming the victim, empowering the predator
The fundamental truth that GFSA refuses to accept is that a gun-free South Africa is a fantasy. We live in a country where the “bad guys” are already armed to the teeth with assault rifles and pistols that were never registered at the CFR.
When you make it harder for a dedicated sports shooter, hunter or self-defence applicant to get a licence, you are not making the streets safer. You are merely ensuring that the only people with firearms are the criminals and the corrupt officials who arm them.
Evidence from the 2024/2025 crime statistics shows that while murder rates fluctuate slightly, violent assaults and hijackings are on the rise. In this environment, a licensed, trained firearm owner is a net positive for public safety. Many “good guys with guns” have successfully thwarted hijackings and home invasions, often without even firing a shot. The mere presence of a defender is frequently enough to end an encounter.
Conclusion
We can agree on one thing: we need immediate action on firearm oversight. However, that oversight must be directed inward at the state, not outward at its law-abiding citizens.
The idealism needs to stop and organisations like GFSA needs to get real for once. The only proper defence against a perpetrator with a firearm is a law-abiding citizen with a legally licenced firearm. Organisations that actively push for more firearm policy is missing the point. Standing in the way of good law-abiding citizens that seek to own a firearm in order to protect their families is only making matters worse. Firearm owners are not the problem, criminals are!
The single pool theory is a myth designed to justify the disarmament of the law-abiding. We must stop blaming the victim for the failures of the police. South Africa does not need fewer legal firearms; it needs a government that can keep illegal ones out of the hands of criminals. Until the SAPS can guarantee the safety of every South African, the right to lawful self-defence remains a non-negotiable lifeline.
Civil Society South Africa calls on all legal firearm owners to stand with your fellow law-abiding firearm owner against the public rhetoric that undermines and denigrate those who aim to safeguard and protect.
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